453
Usually a Wrightbus Nrm.

1.5 minexcess wait in the week ending 17 October 2026. Half of London's frequent routes kept it to 1.4 min or less.

The last week, day by day
Chance of waiting more than ten minutes if you turn up at random.
The weekly figures

Excess wait, then the chance of waiting more than ten minutes if you turn up at random.

Week endingtowards Deptford Bridgetowards Great Central Street
21 Jun 2025no datano data
28 Jun 20252.1 min · 17%2.0 min · 14%
5 Jul 20251.9 min · 18% thin1.6 min · 14% thin
12 Jul 2025no datano data
19 Jul 20251.8 min · 16%1.8 min · 15%
26 Jul 20251.5 min · 16%2.4 min · 13%
2 Aug 20252.1 min · 19%1.8 min · 15%
9 Aug 20252.1 min · 18%1.8 min · 14%
16 Aug 20251.8 min · 14%1.3 min · 13%
23 Aug 20251.6 min · 14%1.1 min · 12%
30 Aug 20251.2 min · 14%0.9 min · 11%
6 Sept 20251.1 min · 14%0.9 min · 10%
13 Sept 20251.7 min · 21%2.2 min · 20%
20 Sept 20251.2 min · 14%1.3 min · 13%
27 Sept 20251.7 min · 17%1.5 min · 14%
4 Oct 20251.1 min · 12%1.2 min · 11%
11 Oct 20250.9 min · 12%0.8 min · 10%
18 Oct 20250.9 min · 12%0.9 min · 11%
25 Oct 20251.1 min · 12%1.1 min · 12%
1 Nov 20251.2 min · 13%1.3 min · 13%
8 Nov 20251.8 min · 17%2.0 min · 16%
15 Nov 20251.6 min · 16% thin1.9 min · 16% thin
22 Nov 20251.8 min · 16% thin1.3 min · 13% thin
29 Nov 20251.7 min · 16%1.8 min · 15%
6 Dec 20251.7 min · 16%1.8 min · 16%
13 Dec 20251.5 min · 16%1.4 min · 15%
20 Dec 20251.6 min · 18%1.7 min · 18%
27 Dec 20252.0 min · 20% thin2.0 min · 19% thin
3 Jan 20261.6 min · 16%1.3 min · 15%
10 Jan 20260.5 min · 9%0.7 min · 11%
17 Jan 20260.8 min · 11%0.8 min · 11%
24 Jan 20261.1 min · 13%1.2 min · 13%
31 Jan 20260.9 min · 12%0.9 min · 12%
7 Feb 20261.2 min · 14%1.2 min · 13%
14 Feb 20261.2 min · 14%1.2 min · 14%
21 Feb 2026no datano data
28 Feb 2026no datano data
7 Mar 20261.0 min · 13%1.0 min · 13%
14 Mar 20261.0 min · 14%1.2 min · 15%
21 Mar 20261.2 min · 15%1.1 min · 14%
28 Mar 20261.2 min · 15%1.0 min · 13%
4 Apr 20260.8 min · 12%0.9 min · 12%
11 Apr 20260.8 min · 12%0.8 min · 13%
18 Apr 20260.8 min · 11%0.9 min · 11%
25 Apr 20262.0 min · 20% thin1.9 min · 18% thin
2 May 20261.5 min · 16%1.0 min · 12%
9 May 20260.9 min · 13%0.8 min · 12%
16 May 20261.4 min · 16%1.4 min · 16%
23 May 20261.1 min · 14%1.1 min · 14%
30 May 20261.3 min · 16%1.4 min · 17%
6 Jun 20261.8 min · 18%1.6 min · 17%
13 Jun 20261.1 min · 14%1.2 min · 14%
20 Jun 20261.7 min · 18%1.5 min · 16%
27 Jun 20261.4 min · 17%1.3 min · 15%
4 Jul 2026no datano data
11 Jul 20261.9 min · 20%1.5 min · 16%
18 Jul 20261.3 min · 15%1.1 min · 14%
25 Jul 20260.8 min · 12%0.8 min · 11%
1 Aug 2026no datano data
8 Aug 2026no datano data
15 Aug 2026no datano data
22 Aug 2026no datano data
29 Aug 2026no datano data
5 Sept 20261.0 min · 16%1.0 min · 16%
12 Sept 20260.9 min · 14%0.8 min · 14%
19 Sept 20262.0 min · 19%2.2 min · 18%
26 Sept 20261.7 min · 18%1.6 min · 17%
3 Oct 20261.5 min · 16%1.6 min · 15%
10 Oct 20261.3 min · 16%1.5 min · 15%
17 Oct 20261.5 min · 17%1.5 min · 16%

Waiting for a bus towards Deptford Bridge, more than ten minutes goes by on about one trip in six. Running exactly to the timetable it would almost never happen.

towards Deptford Bridge
Excess wait
1.5 min0.2 min of it from buses turned short
Wait > 10 min
17%timetable alone: 2%
Wait > 20 min
2%timetable alone: 0%
Wait > 30 min
0%timetable alone: 0%
1 in 20 wait over
15 min
Cut short
10.4% 110 of 1,060 journeys
towards Great Central Street
Excess wait
1.5 min0.3 min of it from buses turned short
Wait > 10 min
16%timetable alone: 1%
Wait > 20 min
2%timetable alone: 0%
Wait > 30 min
1%timetable alone: 0%
1 in 20 wait over
15 min
Cut short
10.6% 122 of 1,146 journeys

68 minutes was the longest gap between buses this week, at Baker Street Station towards Great Central Street, on Sunday 11 October from 18:57 to 20:05. This excludes any gaps caused by holes in our own data. Watch it happen →

When it goes wrong

Chance of waiting more than twenty minutes if you turn up at random, by time of day, averaged over the most recent weeks of data. The mark on each bar is the chance if everything ran to timetable.

  • Weekdays 05:00–07:00 3.3% 1.1 min excess wait
  • Weekdays 07:00–10:00 0.7% 1.4 min excess wait
  • Weekdays 10:00–16:00 1.7% 1.7 min excess wait
  • Weekdays 16:00–19:00 1.7% 1.8 min excess wait
  • Weekdays 19:00–24:00 1.8% 1.3 min excess wait
  • Saturdays 1.1% 1.2 min excess wait
  • Sundays and bank holidays 3.2% 1.9 min excess wait

Journeys cut short

Last week: 10.5% of journeys were turned back before the end of the line in the week ending 17 October 2026, and that accounts for 0.3 minutes of the excess wait above. Everyone on board has to get off; for anyone waiting further along the route it's effectively a cancellation.

Where it's felt most: buses cut short elsewhere on the route added 1.6 minutes to the average wait at Baker Street Station, towards Deptford Bridge, last week: 6.8 minutes instead of the 5.3 if they had all run the full route.

Last four weeks: 715 journeys on route 453 were turned back before the end of the line over four weeks of watching, 26 September to 17 October 2026 — about 26 a day.

00.51.01.52.0journeys cut short a day, by hour00:00–01:00: 0.9 cut short on an average day00:0001:00–02:00: 0.6 cut short on an average day02:00–03:00: 0.3 cut short on an average day03:00–04:00: 0.2 cut short on an average day04:00–05:00: 0.1 cut short on an average day05:00–06:00: 0.3 cut short on an average day06:00–07:00: 0.6 cut short on an average day06:0007:00–08:00: 1.0 cut short on an average day08:00–09:00: 1.0 cut short on an average day09:00–10:00: 1.1 cut short on an average day10:00–11:00: 1.2 cut short on an average day11:00–12:00: 1.1 cut short on an average day12:00–13:00: 1.9 cut short on an average day12:0013:00–14:00: 2.0 cut short on an average day14:00–15:00: 1.6 cut short on an average day15:00–16:00: 2.0 cut short on an average day16:00–17:00: 1.7 cut short on an average day17:00–18:00: 1.6 cut short on an average day18:00–19:00: 1.4 cut short on an average day18:0019:00–20:00: 1.4 cut short on an average day20:00–21:00: 1.1 cut short on an average day21:00–22:00: 0.9 cut short on an average day22:00–23:00: 0.7 cut short on an average day23:00–00:00: 1.0 cut short on an average daybusiest hour 13:00 — 2.0 a day

Where those journeys fall across the day. Each bar is the number cut short in that hour on an average day, so the bars together come to the daily figure above; hover a bar for its hour. Hours the route was not watched enough to say are shaded rather than drawn as nought.

towards Deptford Bridge

Last week, 110 of 1,060 journeys (10%) were turned short.

0510average wait at each stop, minutesGreat Central Street: 7.7 min average wait — 6.2 without the buses cut short (+1.5); the timetable alone would give 4.3Baker Street Station: 6.8 min average wait — 5.3 without the buses cut short (+1.6); the timetable alone would give 4.3+1.6 min at Baker Street StationGreat Portland Street Station: 5.7 min average wait — 5.4 without the buses cut short (+0.3); the timetable alone would give 4.4Oxford Circus Stn / Margaret Street: 5.6 min average wait — 5.5 without the buses cut short (+0.1); the timetable alone would give 4.4Piccadilly Circus: 5.7 min average wait — 5.7 without the buses cut short (+0.1); the timetable alone would give 4.4Whitehall / Horseguards Avenue: 5.9 min average wait; the timetable alone would give 4.5Westminster Stn / Parliament Square: 5.9 min average wait — 5.9 without the buses cut short (+0.0); the timetable alone would give 4.5Elephant & Castle / New Kent Road: 6.0 min average wait — 6.0 without the buses cut short (+0.0); the timetable alone would give 4.6Bricklayer's Arms: 6.0 min average wait — 6.0 without the buses cut short (+0.0); the timetable alone would give 4.6Dunton Road: 6.0 min average wait — 6.0 without the buses cut short (+0.0); the timetable alone would give 4.6New Cross Bus Garage: 6.2 min average wait — 6.2 without the buses cut short (+0.0); the timetable alone would give 4.7Great Central StreetNew Cross Bus Garage →

Each bar is the average wait at one stop, in route order. The darker top is what buses cut short added; the pale part is the wait without them; the tick is what the timetable alone would give. Hover a bar for the stop.

  • New Cross Bus Garage1.6 km short of the end 57
  • Marquis of Granby0.8 km short of the end 46
  • New Cross Gate Station1.2 km short of the end 6
  • Haymarket / Charles Il Street9.7 km short of the end 1

towards Great Central Street

Last week, 122 of 1,146 journeys (11%) were turned short.

0510average wait at each stop, minutesDeptford Bridge Station: 6.2 min average wait — 5.2 without the buses cut short (+1.0); the timetable alone would give 4.3New Cross Bus Garage: 5.2 min average wait; the timetable alone would give 4.3Dunton Road: 5.3 min average wait; the timetable alone would give 4.3Bricklayer's Arms: 5.2 min average wait; the timetable alone would give 4.3Elephant & Castle / New Kent Road: 5.3 min average wait; the timetable alone would give 4.4Westminster Stn / Parliament Square: 5.6 min average wait — 5.6 without the buses cut short (+0.0); the timetable alone would give 4.4Trafalgar Square: 5.7 min average wait — 5.7 without the buses cut short (+0.0); the timetable alone would give 4.4Piccadilly Circus: 5.9 min average wait — 5.9 without the buses cut short (+0.0); the timetable alone would give 4.4Margaret Street / Oxford Circus: 6.0 min average wait — 5.9 without the buses cut short (+0.1); the timetable alone would give 4.4Regent's Park Station: 7.4 min average wait — 6.0 without the buses cut short (+1.5); the timetable alone would give 4.4Baker Street Station: 7.5 min average wait — 6.0 without the buses cut short (+1.5); the timetable alone would give 4.4+1.5 min at Baker Street StationDeptford Bridge StationBaker Street Station →

Each bar is the average wait at one stop, in route order. The darker top is what buses cut short added; the pale part is the wait without them; the tick is what the timetable alone would give. Hover a bar for the stop.

  • Great Portland Street Station1.6 km short of the end 76
  • Margaret Street / Oxford Circus2.4 km short of the end 15
  • Regent Street / St James's3.6 km short of the end 7
  • New Cross Bus Garage11.7 km short of the end 5
  • Conduit Street / Hamleys Toy Store3.0 km short of the end 4
  • Elsewhere along the route 15

Each place is the last stop the bus was timed at before it turned round, with the typical distance it fell short of the end of the line. The five busiest are named; the rest are counted together.

Compared with TfL's own figures

QuarterTfLOurs
2025/26 Q313 Sept – 2 Jan 20261.29 min1.46 min
2026/27 Q11 Apr – 26 Jun 20261.14 min1.25 min

TfL's figures come from its own tracking equipment and its own timetable; mine are computed from the buses' public position feed. They are the same calculation on independent data, so they should broadly agree and move together rather than match exactly.

Why mine is usually a little higher. When a bus is turned back before the end of the line, everyone waiting further along has to wait for the next one. My figure counts that waiting; TfL's published figure appears not to. Take it out and the two come close: across London in April to June 2026, my average excess wait falls from 1.39 to 1.23 minutes against TfL's 1.08, and on the routes where the two differed most it lands almost exactly on TfL's number.

About this data
Data collected, week ending 17 October 2026
100% of the week. This is the share of the week for which we hold bus location data at all, across the whole of London rather than for this route. A week under 60% is not published; under 90% it is marked as thin.
Journeys observed
  • towards Deptford Bridge: 1,060 journeys tracked across seven days
  • towards Great Central Street: 1,146 journeys tracked across seven days
A guide to how much evidence sits behind this week's figures, not a measure of the service.
How it is measured
Every day, 05:00–23:59. Waits are measured along the route at TfL's timing points, in each direction, against the timetable — not at the ends of the route, where a bus turned back early counts as if it had run. A day with less than four hours of data collected shows no daily figure. How these figures are made.
Gaps in the record for this period (39)

Most recent first. Hover a week on the chart and it will name the gap behind it. Most are a few missing hours on an otherwise ordinary day.

  • 17 Sept 2026 partial day, no data 12:00-12:59: our collector was down (machine off or power cut)
  • 28 Aug 2026 partial day, no data 20:00-23:59: our collector was down (machine off or power cut)
  • 29 Jul – 26 Aug 2026 no collection: the volunteer BODS archive was down and our own collector had not yet started
  • 28 Jul 2026 partial day, no data 11:00-23:59: no collection: the volunteer BODS archive was down and our own collector had not yet started
  • 7 Jul 2026 partial day, no data 15:00-15:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 5 Jul 2026 partial day, no data 06:00-11:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 4 Jul 2026 partial day, no data 06:00-21:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 2 Jul – 3 Jul 2026 gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 8 Jun 2026 partial day, no data 07:00-08:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 7 Jun 2026 partial day, no data 12:00-12:59, 18:00-19:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 6 Jun 2026 partial day, no data 12:00-12:59, 16:00-16:59, 18:00-18:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 27 Apr 2026 partial day, no data 12:00-12:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 21 Apr 2026 partial day, no data 06:00-11:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 20 Apr 2026 partial day, no data 15:00-23:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 16 Apr 2026 partial day, no data 12:00-15:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 28 Feb 2026 partial day, no data 06:00-18:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 16 Feb – 27 Feb 2026 gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 15 Feb 2026 partial day, no data 16:00-23:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 30 Jan 2026 partial day, no data 20:00-23:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 25 Dec 2025 no bus service on Christmas Day
  • 23 Dec 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-07:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 5 Dec 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-08:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 24 Nov 2025 partial day, no data 17:00-17:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 17 Nov 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-09:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 15 Nov – 16 Nov 2025 no London vehicles in the national feed — TfL's export to BODS was down (the volunteer archive itself was collecting)
  • 14 Nov 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-07:59, 13:00-23:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 31 Oct 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-07:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 17 Oct 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-07:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 10 Oct 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-08:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 3 Oct 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-11:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 19 Sept 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-08:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 5 Sept 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-09:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 1 Aug 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-09:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 18 Jul 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-09:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 8 Jul 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-08:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 6 Jul – 7 Jul 2025 gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 5 Jul 2025 partial day, no data 18:00-23:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 4 Jul 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-14:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)
  • 25 Jun 2025 partial day, no data 06:00-11:59: gap in the volunteer BODS archive (its collector was down)

For latest timetable and route information, see TfL's official page.

Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0; bus data via the DfT Bus Open Data Service and Transport for London. Figures are computed from observed bus positions, every day, 05:00–23:59. How these figures are made. Bus positions from the Department for Transport’s Bus Open Data Service (BODS); the Department for Transport cannot warrant the accuracy or quality of the data published there. Positions before September 2026 come from the Bus Open Data archive generously built and kept by Open Innovations, with thanks. Route lines and stops: Powered by TfL Open Data. Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database rights 2016. Geomni UK Map data © and database rights [2019]. These pages and the bus replay are built independently from open data: Transport for London, the Department for Transport and the bus operators had no part in making them, and none of them endorses them. Not for planning a journey.